[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 September 19 issued 2335 UT on 27 Sep 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 28 09:35:52 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Sep 29 Sep 30 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 27 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 28-30 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 27 September, the solar wind speed was
near its nominal levels up to 0930UT, then it started increasing
and reached 722 km/s at 2030UT, indicating the arrival of high-speed
solar wind streams associated with a recurrent coronal hole.
The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 5 nT and 15 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied from +4 nT to -10 nT, and sustained
southward between 1100 UT and 1800 UT. During the next three
UT days, 28-30 September, the solar wind speed is expected to
remain at high levels as the coronal hole effects persist.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 01222433
Cocos Island 11 01222443
Darwin 9 12222333
Townsville 9 12222333
Learmonth 14 01223444
Alice Springs 9 11222333
Gingin 14 01223444
Launceston 12 02222434
Hobart 8 01222333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 00124543
Casey 14 23313334
Mawson 38 31314476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2000 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Sep 45 Active to Minor Storm with possible isolated
Major Storm periods.
29 Sep 25 Quiet to Minor Storm
30 Sep 15 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 27 September, the geomagnetic activity reached
Active levels in the Australian region and Major storm levels
in Antarctica. The disturbed conditions were due to coronal hole
effects. Active and Minor storm levels are expected for 28-29
September. Isolated Major storm periods are possible for 28 September.
Then geomagnetic activity is expected to decline to mostly Quiet
to Active levels on 30 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Sep Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair-normal
30 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected for
28-30 September due to predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Sep -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
29 Sep -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
30 Sep -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
27 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
were also observed, mostly in the Southern Australian region.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites.
Degraded HF propagation conditions are likely for 28-30 September
as a consequence of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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