[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 20 09:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 19 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 20-22 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the satellite imagery.
During UT day 19 September, the solar wind speed varied in the
range 350-400 km/s, on a declining trend in general. The total
IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +2/-1 nT. An enhancement
of low energy solar energetic particles were observed in the
ACE spacecraft data between 19/1500UT and 19/1800 UT and a sudden,
though small perturbation, in IMF Bt occurred soon after at ~19/1900
UT. These are possible indication of a weak glancing blow from
the 16 September CME triggered by the disappearing solar filament.
During the next two UT days, 20-21 September, the solar wind
speed is expected to remain mostly near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 10102010
Cocos Island 1 10101010
Darwin 1 10101010
Townsville 2 11102011
Learmonth 2 10102010
Alice Springs 1 10002010
Gingin 1 10001010
Canberra 0 00001000
Launceston 2 10112110
Hobart 1 00002100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 7 32322120
Mawson 12 22312152
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3121 3112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian on UT day 19 September. Mostly quiet to unsettled
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels during the
next three UT days, 20-22 September. Occasional unsettled conditions
are possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 20-22 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Sep 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
19 September. Minor depressions were recorded in low latitude
Australian region during local night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F
occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next three
UT days, 20-22 September, MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 55100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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