[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 20 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 21 09:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Sep: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 20 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 21-23 September.
During UT day 20 September, the solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 350 km/s to 290 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
3 nT and 4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range +2.5/-2.5 nT. During the next three UT days, 21-23
September, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its nominal levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11001000
Cocos Island 0 11000000
Darwin 1 11101000
Townsville 2 11001111
Learmonth 2 21002000
Alice Springs 0 10001000
Gingin 1 20001000
Canberra 0 11000000
Launceston 2 21001110
Hobart 1 11001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 10001000
Casey 5 33211100
Mawson 9 23103114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1111 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Sep 5 Quiet
22 Sep 5 Quiet
23 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 20 September. Mostly quiet conditions
with some unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels during the next three UT days, 21-23 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 20 September. Some periods of minor
to moderate MUF enhancements as well as MUF depressions were
also observed in some low- and mid-latitude regions. Sporadic-E
and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the
next three UT days, 21-23 September, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Sep -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
20 September. Some periods of minor to moderate MUF enhancements
as well as MUF depressions were also observed. Sporadic-E and
Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 21-23 September, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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