[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 18 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 19 09:31:27 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 18 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 19-21 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the satellite imagery.
During UT day 18 September, the solar wind speed varied in the
range 390-450 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and
5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in
the range +5/-4 nT. The IMF Bz was predominantly southward between
18/0800 UT and 18/1200 UT. During the next two UT days, 19-21
September, the solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly
near its nominal to mildly elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 21223111
Cocos Island 3 11212110
Darwin 6 21223111
Townsville 7 21233112
Learmonth 6 21223111
Alice Springs 5 11223111
Gingin 6 21223120
Canberra 5 21223002
Launceston 10 21334112
Hobart 5 20223101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 11 20335001
Casey 10 33323122
Mawson 16 33333334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3111 1124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep 5 Quiet
21 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
recorded in the Australian and Antarctic region on UT day 18
September. The unsettled period was caused by the IMF Bz remaining
southward for prolonged period and the mildly elevated solar
wind speed. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly
at quiet levels during the next three UT days, 19-21 September.
Occasional unsettled conditions are possible in response to elevated
solar wind speed. Conditions may even reach active levels on
19 September if the possible CME associated with 16 September
filament does impact the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 19-21 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were slightly enhanced to near predicted monthly values
during UT day 18 September. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 19-21
September, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 54500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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