[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 19 issued 2340 UT on 17 Sep 2019

Wed Sep 18 09:40:00 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 17 September 
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions 
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar 
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 18-20 September. 
There was limited convincing evidence that the UT day 16 September 
disappearing filament may have triggered a CME. Assuming worst 
case scenario, the "possible CME" could arrive at earth on late 
UT day 19 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in 
UT day 17 September satellite imagery. During UT day 17 September, 
the solar wind speed varied in the range 360-440 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 8 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +5/-5 nT. There was no prolong 
IMF Bz was southward condition during UT day 17 September. During 
the next two UT days, 18-19 September, the solar wind speed is 
expected to vary between its nominal and mildly elevated levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21210023
      Cocos Island         5   11210123
      Darwin               6   22210123
      Townsville           5   21210123
      Learmonth            5   21210123
      Alice Springs        4   11210023
      Gingin               3   21100022
      Canberra             3   11100023
      Launceston           6   21110024
      Hobart               3   10100013    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     3   10010013
      Casey                9   33310123
      Mawson              27   43221166

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             11   4401 1221     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     7    Quiet
19 Sep    13    Unsettled to Active
20 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded 
in the Australian region on UT day 17 September. Mostly quiet 
to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels 
during the next three UT days, 18-20 September. Occasional unsettled 
conditions are possible in response to elevated solar wind speed. 
Conditions may reach active levels on 19 September if the possible 
CME associated with 16 September filament does impact Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for UT days 18-20 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Sep    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
17 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in 
Southern Australian region during the local night. Minor depressions 
were recorded in low latitude Australian region during local 
day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some 
sites. For the next three UT days, 18-20 September, MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 446 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    53000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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