[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 17 09:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 16 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 17-19 September.
A small filament located near N50E10 was seen erupting in the
GONG H-Alpha/Learmonth and SDO/AIA 304 imagery starting near
16/0600 UT. However, no clear CME signatures were detected in
the available coronagraph imagery associated with this event.
More updates, if any, on this event will be provided later. During
UT day 16 September, the solar wind speed varied in the range
410-470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 4 nT and 6 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+4/-4 nT. IMF Bz was southward during the first 4 hours of the
UT day 16 September. During the next two UT days, 17-18 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to vary between its nominal
and mildly elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 23111222
Cocos Island 4 22110211
Darwin 6 23111222
Townsville 7 23121222
Learmonth 5 22021222
Alice Springs 5 22111221
Gingin 5 22110222
Canberra 4 23011111
Launceston 6 23121212
Hobart 4 23011111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 12001000
Casey 12 34431112
Mawson 32 35331266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2322 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Initially Unsettled and then mostly quiet levels of
geomagnetic activity were recorded in the Australian region on
UT day 16 September. Mostly quiet to active levels were observed
in the Antarctic region. The disturbed conditions were due to
prolonged southward Bz conditions and elevated solar wind speed.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels during the next three UT days, 17-19 September. Occasional
unsettled conditions are possible in response to elevated solar
wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 17-19 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
16 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in
Southern Australian region. Minor depressions were recorded in
Northern Australian region during local night. Sporadic-E and
Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 17-19 September, MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 72200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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