[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 16 09:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 15 September
with no active regions on the visible disc. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disc and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 16-18 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 15 September, the solar wind speed varied
in the range 410-470 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
4 nT and 7 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range +4/-4 nT. During the next two UT days, 16-17 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to vary between its nominal
and moderately elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12221122
Cocos Island 5 12111222
Darwin 6 22221122
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 5 12221122
Gingin 8 22221233
Canberra 5 12220122
Launceston 6 22221122
Hobart 4 12120122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Sep :
Macquarie Island 3 11230001
Casey 11 33331232
Mawson 29 23333266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1221 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Australian region on UT day 15 September. Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels
during the next three UT days, 16-18 September. Occasional unsettled
conditions are possible in response to elevated solar wind speed.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 16-18 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
15 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in
Southern Australian region during local night. Minor depressions
were recorded in Northern Australian region during local day.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites.
For the next three UT days, 16-18 September, MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 67400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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