[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 14 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 15 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 14 September
with no active regions on the visible disk. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 15-17 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 14 September, the solar wind speed varied
in the range 430-500 km/s and showed a declining trend in general.
The total IMF (Bt) was mostly steady near 4 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain mildly elevated today, UT day 15
September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12211021
Cocos Island 2 01111020
Darwin 3 12101021
Townsville 4 02211022
Learmonth 4 12211021
Alice Springs 3 02211011
Gingin 3 01111031
Canberra 3 12110012
Launceston 5 12221022
Hobart 4 12211012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01110001
Casey 8 23322121
Mawson 19 22323255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2331 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 5 Quiet
17 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Australian region on UT day 14 September. Mostly quiet
to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet during
the next three UT days, 15-17 September. Occasional unsettled
conditions are possible on UT day 15 September in response to
the forecasted mildly elevated solar wind conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
17 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 15-17 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
14 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in
Southern Australian region during local night and in Northern
Australian region after local dawn. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 15-17
September, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 141000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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