[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 13 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 14 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 13 September
with no active regions on the visible disk. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk and very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 14-16 September.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 13 September, the solar wind speed varied
in the range 440-510 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
2 nT and 10 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
varied in the range +8/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be moderately elevated for the next two UT days, 14-15 September.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
13/1855UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Cocos Island 3 12211110
Darwin 5 21212112
Townsville 6 22312111
Learmonth 5 22212210
Alice Springs 5 22212111
Gingin 4 22211120
Canberra 4 12211210
Launceston 6 22312211
Hobart 5 12311210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 4 12311100
Casey 13 44431110
Mawson 23 35533234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1023 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Australian region on UT day 13 September. Mostly quiet
to active levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled
levels during the next three UT days, 14-16 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for UT days 14-16 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
13 September. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in
Southern Australian region during local night and in Northern
Australian region after local dawn. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 14-16
September, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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