[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 12 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 13 09:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 12 September
with no active regions on the visible disk. No active regions
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk, Very low solar
activity is expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 September.
A small CME was observed starting around 11/2200UT,it is not
Earth directed. GONG Halpha images showed a filament eruption
in the NW quadrant starting around 12/1400UT. Discontinuity in
coronagraph imagery made analysis difficult. This will be further
analysis when data become available. No other Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During
UT day 12 September, the solar wind speed varied between 430-390
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 8 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
+/- 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at background
levels for the next three UT days, 13-15 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 11121211
Cocos Island 2 00120210
Darwin 4 11121212
Townsville 5 12221221
Learmonth 5 11122221
Alice Springs 4 02121211
Gingin 5 11122222
Canberra 3 01121211
Launceston 6 12222212
Hobart 4 11121211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 01251101
Casey 14 34422322
Mawson 13 33333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 5 Quiet
14 Sep 5 Quiet
15 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded in
the Australian region on UT day 12 September. Quiet to Active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during the
next three UT days, 13-15 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 13-15 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 12 September in the Australian region.
Mild depressions were observed at times across the Equatorial
region. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over
some sites. For the next three UT days, 13-15 September, MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 74400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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