[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 11 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 12 09:31:21 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 11 September.
The sun is spotless and no active regions are expected to return.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
12-14 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 11 September, the
solar wind speed varied between 450-400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
varied mostly between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4 nT and +2 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mainly at background levels for
the next three UT days, 12-14 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 01221101
Cocos Island 2 02110100
Darwin 2 01211101
Townsville 3 01221110
Learmonth 3 11211200
Alice Springs 3 01221101
Gingin 3 10211211
Canberra 2 01221100
Launceston 5 01322201
Hobart 4 01321101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Sep :
Macquarie Island 6 01432100
Casey 8 24221211
Mawson 12 32332242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1202 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 5 Quiet
14 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were recorded
in the Australian region on UT day 11 September. Quiet to Active
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels during the
next three UT days, 12-14 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 12-14 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 11 September across all regions.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites.
For the next three UT days, 12-14 September, MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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