[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 11 09:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 10 September.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
11-13 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the
available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 10 September, the
solar wind speed was slightly enhanced, varying in the range
450-520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 to 7
nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the
range +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly
at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three
UT days, 11-13 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11123000
Cocos Island 1 01011000
Darwin 4 11123001
Townsville 3 11123000
Learmonth 4 12123000
Alice Springs 3 11023000
Gingin 3 01023000
Canberra 3 01123000
Launceston 3 11123000
Hobart 3 01123000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
Macquarie Island 8 11035000
Casey 7 23323000
Mawson 10 33332103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3234 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Sep 5 Quiet
13 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity were
recorded in the Australian region on UT day 10 September. Mainly
Quiet to Unsettled levels were observed in the Antarctic region.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet
levels during the next three UT days, 11-13 September. Isolated
Unsettled periods are possible today, 11 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 11-13 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep -15 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 10 September in the Australian region.
Mild depressions were observed local day across Northern Australian
and Equatorial regions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. For the next three UT days, 11-13 September,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 479 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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