[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 10 09:31:26 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 9 September.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
10-12 September. SDO observations recorded the ejection of a
prominence from the SE limb starting 09/1112UT. SOHO images currently
show no evidence of any CME. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day
9 September, the solar wind speed was enhanced reached 550 Km/s
at 9/1030 UT, exhibiting a decreasing trend, currently around
470 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 2 to 7 nT
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range
-6 to +4 nT with extended southward excursions. The solar wind
speed is expected to be mainly at background to slightly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 10-12 September.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 10 22333311
Cocos Island 8 22232311
Darwin 8 22232311
Townsville 12 22333412
Learmonth 10 22333312
Alice Springs 10 22333311
Gingin 12 32334311
Canberra 9 22233311
Launceston 12 22343312
Hobart 11 22343311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 24 12465410
Casey 13 33342322
Mawson 38 54444456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 2323 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 12 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep 7 Quiet
12 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 9 September, geomagnetic activity was Quiet
to Unsettled with some isolated Active periods in the Australian
region. In the Antarctic region, Active to Minor Storm levels
were observed. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be
mostly at Quiet levels during the next three UT days, 10-12 September.
Possible Unsettled periods on UT day 10 September if increased
solar wind speed persists.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 10-12 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 9 September in the Australian region
with periods of minor depressions in the Northern Australian
and Equatorial regions. Sporadic E occurrences were also observed.
For the next three UT days, 10-12 September, MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 91600 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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