[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 9 09:31:31 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Sep             10 Sep             11 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 8 September. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
9-11 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 8 September, the solar wind 
speed varied between 400 to 490 km/s, currently around 410 km/s. 
During the past 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 
1 to 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied 
in the range -5 to +4 nT. On UT days 9-11 September, the solar 
wind speed is expected to return to background levels but may 
become slightly elevated at times due to the influence of various 
small coronal hole features.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12221112
      Cocos Island         4   12111211
      Darwin               4   11221112
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            6   22221222
      Alice Springs        5   12221112
      Gingin               6   21122222
      Canberra             4   11122111
      Launceston           7   12232122
      Hobart               5   11222112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     7   11333201
      Casey                9   24221222
      Mawson              33   44442465

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1132 2312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 8 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic 
activity was at Quiet levels. In the Antarctic region, the activity 
varied from Quiet to Active levels, with an isolated storm period. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at Quiet 
to Unsettled levels during the next three UT days, 9-11 September, 
due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 8 September. Sporadic E occurrences 
were also observed. For the next three UT days, 9-11 September, 
MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Sep   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 8 September in the Australian region 
with periods of mild to moderate enhancements at some locations 
and periods of minor depressions in the Northern Australian Region. 
Sporadic E occurrences were also observed. For the next three 
UT days, 9-11 September, MUFs in the Australian region are expected 
to stay mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    89700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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