[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 September 19 issued 2333 UT on 07 Sep 2019

Sun Sep 8 09:33:04 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Sep             09 Sep             10 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 7 September. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
8-10 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 7 September, the solar wind 
speed continued to gradually decline from around 480 km/s to 
currently around 420 km/s. There were a few periods with minor 
elevations in wind speed, with a maximum of 509 km/s at 07/0933 
UT. During the past 24 hours, the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly 
between 2 to 6 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied in the range +/-4 nT. On UT days 8-10 September, the solar 
wind speed is expected to remain moderately elevated due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11212111
      Cocos Island         3   11212011
      Darwin               4   11212111
      Townsville           5   11212122
      Learmonth            5   11212222
      Alice Springs        4   11212111
      Gingin               5   11212221
      Canberra             3   01212111
      Launceston           4   11222111
      Hobart               3   01221111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   00232111
      Casey               17   33433342
      Mawson              21   34324335

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            17   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2423 2111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
09 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods
10 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled, with a chance of isolated 
                Active periods

COMMENT: On UT day 7 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic 
activity was at Quiet levels. In the Antarctic region, the activity 
varied from Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels during 
the next three UT days, 8-10 September, due to coronal hole effects, 
with a chance of isolated Active periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 7 September with periods of mild 
enhancements on some low- and mid-latitude locations. Sporadic 
E occurrences were also observed. For the next three UT days, 
8-10 September, MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted 
monthly values.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Sep   -11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
10 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 7 September in the Australian region 
with periods of mild to moderate enhancements at some locations. 
The Northern Australian region experienced some minor depressions 
during the local day. Sporadic E occurrences were also observed. 
For the next three UT days, 8-10 September, MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 495 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   139000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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