[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 19 issued 2335 UT on 06 Sep 2019

Sat Sep 7 09:35:15 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 6 September. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
7-9 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 6 September, the solar wind 
speed reached a maximum of 582 km/s at 06/0415 UT and then gradually 
decreased, currently around 480 km/s. During this period the 
total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 to 6 nT, reaching a maximum 
of 6.2 nT at 06/0856 UT. The north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) varied in the range -5 to +4 nT, reaching a minimum of -5.0 
nT at 06/0245 UT. On UT days 7-9 September, the solar wind speed 
is expected to remain elevated due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12221111
      Cocos Island         2   12110100
      Darwin               4   12221111
      Townsville           4   12221111
      Learmonth            4   12221111
      Alice Springs        4   12221101
      Gingin               4   12121211
      Canberra             2   02120000
      Launceston           6   13231111
      Hobart               4   12231100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     5   13231000
      Casey               10   34321112
      Mawson              24   25442245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   4433 2122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled, with possible isolated active 
                periods
08 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep     6    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 6 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic 
activity stayed mostly at Quiet levels, with some Unsettled periods 
observed in Tasmania. In the Antarctic region, the activity varied 
mostly from Quiet to Minor Storm levels. Global geomagnetic activity 
is expected to stay mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels during 
the next three UT days, 7-9 September with the possibility of 
isolated Active periods on 7 September due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 6 September with periods of mild 
enhancements on some low- and mid-latitude locations. Sporadic 
E occurrences were also observed. For the next three UT days, 
7-9 September, MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted 
monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 Sep   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 6 September in the Australian region 
with periods of mild enhancements at some locations. Sporadic 
E occurrences were also observed. For the next three UT days, 
7-9 September, MUFs in the Australian region are expected to 
stay mostly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.