[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Sep 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 6 09:31:30 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 5 September.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
6-8 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 5 September, the solar wind
speed first showed a gradual decrease from 550 km/s to 480 km/s
by around 17:20 UT and then showed a gradual increase to 525
by 22:30 UT. During this period the total IMF (Bt) varied mostly
between 0.6 nT and 5.7 nT; the north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) varied in the range +3/-5.7 nT. Through UT days 6 to 8 September,
the solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated due to coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Mostly quiet
to unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 23222212
Cocos Island 5 12122212
Darwin 7 23222212
Townsville 9 33232212
Learmonth 9 23223222
Alice Springs 7 23222212
Gingin 9 22232223
Canberra 4 22221001
Launceston 12 23433212
Hobart 9 22333212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 18 14553011
Casey 11 23332223
Mawson 35 56432255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 3333 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
07 Sep 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 5 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic
activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. In the Antarctic
region, the activity varied mostly from quiet to minor storm
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly
at quiet to unsettled levels during the next three UT days, 6-8
September with some possibility of isolated active periods on
6 and 7 September due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 5 September with periods of mild
enhancements on some low- and mid-latitude locations. Sporadic
E occurrences were also observed. For the next three UT days,
6-8 September, MUFs are expected to stay mostly near predicted
monthly values.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug -3
Sep -14
Oct -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep -6 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep -7 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep -6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 5 September in the Australian region
with periods of mild enhancements on some locations. Sporadic
E occurrences were also observed. For the next three UT days,
6-8 September, MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
stay mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:41%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 531 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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