[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 September 19 issued 2331 UT on 04 Sep 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 5 09:31:29 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 4 September. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
5-7 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 4 September, the solar wind 
speed was variable, ranging between 440 km/s and 590 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) varied mostly between 3 nT and 7 nT; the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range +6/-5 nT. Through 
UT day 05 September, the solar wind speed is expected to remain 
elevated due to coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22233222
      Cocos Island         5   12221221
      Darwin               8   22232222
      Townsville          10   22333222
      Learmonth            9   22233222
      Alice Springs        9   22233222
      Gingin               8   22223222
      Canberra             5   21232101
      Launceston          11   22433222
      Hobart              10   22333222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    15   12544121
      Casey               16   34432233
      Mawson              31   34443365

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3332 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep     7    Quiet
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 4 September in the Australian region, geomagnetic 
activity stayed mostly at quiet to unsettled levels. In the Antarctic 
region, the activity varied mostly from quiet to minor storm 
levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly 
at quiet levels during the next three UT days, 5-7 September. 
Unsettled periods are likely on UT day 6 September due to coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 4 September. MUFs are expected to 
stay mostly near predicted monthly values for the next three 
UT days, 5-7 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    -6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      -3
Sep      -14
Oct      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during UT day 4 September in the Australian region 
with periods of mild enhancements during local nights. Sporadic 
E occurrences were observed over all Australian sites. For the 
next three UT days, 5-7 September, MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to stay mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 609 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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