[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 27 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 28 10:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 27 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. A very weak
CME (visible from 25/0912 UT, LASCO C2) may have a very weak
earthward directed component, but the possibility of any impact
is very low. Through UT day 27 October, the solar wind speed
varied mostly between 590 and 610 km/s. During this day, the
total IMF (Bt) varied between 1.5 nT and 5 nT, the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) between -4.5 nT and +2.5 nT and the solar
wind particle density between 1 ppcc and 2 ppcc. The solar wind
parameters are now indicating some weakening in the effect of
the recurrent positive polarity coronal hole. The solar wind
stream is expected to show further weakening through UT day 28
October and possibly the first half of UT day 29 October. Some
strengthening in the solar wind stream may again happen from
late on UT day 29 October due to the effect of another coronal
hole and some possible effect of a weak CME. Very low solar activity
is expected for UT days, 28 to 30 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 22321221
Cocos Island 5 12211221
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 8 23321222
Learmonth 9 22322232
Alice Springs 6 22221221
Canberra 9 23321231
Hobart 9 23322231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 23532331
Casey 15 34432232
Mawson 58 34433865
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 3244 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Oct 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
29 Oct 12 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 14 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
possible
COMMENT: Through UT day 27 October, the geomagnetic activity
for the Australian/NZ region was at quiet to unsettled levels.
In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic activity varied from
quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods. These
rises in geomagnetic activity levels are due to the high speed
solar wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of global geomagnetic
activity may be expected for the next 3 UT days (28 to 30 October)
with a small possibility of some active periods on 28 and 30
October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
29 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed through
UT day 27 October. Minor to mild MUF depressions, especially
in mid- to high latitude regions, may be expected through UT
days 28 to 30 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Oct -42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
29 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed across
the Australian and Antarctic regions through UT day 27 October.
Minor to mild MUF depressions in these Australian regions may
be expected through UT days 28 to 30 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 601 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 191000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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