[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 27 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 26 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. One very
weak CME (visible from 25/0912 UT, LASCO C2) was observed. This
CME may have a very weak earthward directed component, but the
possibility of any impact is very low. Through UT day 26 October,
the solar wind speed first increased from 580 km/s to 662 km/s
(17:31 UT) and then slowly decreased to 620 km/s (22:52 UT).
During this day, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 10
nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) between -9 nT and +4
nT and the solar wind particle density between 1 ppcc and 3 ppcc.
This strengthening in the solar wind parameters is associated
with the continued effect of a recurrent positive polarity coronal
hole. This strengthening in the solar wind stream is expected
to continue through UT day 27 October and then gradually decline
through UT days 28 and 29 October. Very low solar activity is
expected for UT days, 27 to 29 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Mostly quiet
to active with isolated minor storm periods
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 23334422
Cocos Island 11 22224421
Darwin 14 33333422
Townsville 16 33344322
Learmonth 21 22335533
Alice Springs 15 23334422
Canberra 14 22344322
Hobart 20 33435422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
Macquarie Island 38 23566533
Casey 23 35434433
Mawson 59 55444766
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 26 5454 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 18 Unsettled to active
28 Oct 15 Mostly quiet to unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Through UT day 26 October, the geomagnetic activity
for the Australian/NZ region was at quiet to active levels with
isolated minor storm periods. In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic
activity varied from quiet to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods. These rises in geomagnetic activity levels
are due to the high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
positive polarity coronal hole. Due to the continued effect of
this coronal hole, global geomagnetic activity may show enhancements
to active levels on UT day 27 October and then gradually decrease
to unsettled and then quiet levels through UT days 28 and 29
October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal-fair Fair Fair
28 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values through
UT day 26 October with some periods of minor to mild MUF depressions
as well as periods of minor to mild enhancements. Minor to mild
MUF depressions in the mid- to high-latitude regions may be expected
through UT days 27 and 28 October. Mostly normal MUFs may be
expected through UT day 29 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
28 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Oct -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs stayed mostly near predicted monthly values in
the Australian regions through UT day 26 October with some periods
of minor to mild MUF depressions as well as periods of minor
to mild enhancements. Minor to mild MUF depressions in the Australian
regions may be expected through UT days 27 and 28 October. Mostly
normal MUFs may be expected in this region through UT day 29
October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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