[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 29 10:31:35 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 28 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for UT days, 29 to 31 October. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. During UT day 28 October, the solar wind speed decreased
from 600 km/s to 450 km/s, in response to the waning effects
of a positive polarity coronal hole. The total IMF Bt was mostly
steady near 4 nT and the north-south component of the IMF Bz
varied between -4 to +4 nT. The solar wind is expected to continue
to decline to background level for most of today, UT day 29 October.
Some mild enhancements in solar wind speeds could be possible
from late on UT day 29 due to the arrival of possible glancing
blow from the 25 Oct CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22232231
Cocos Island 7 11122331
Darwin 6 21222221
Townsville 7 22232221
Learmonth 10 22232332
Alice Springs 9 12232331
Canberra 6 12222221
Hobart 9 22233231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 15 22354320
Casey 18 44433332
Mawson 54 23423685
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16 4432 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Through UT day 28 October, the geomagnetic activity
for the Australian/NZ region was at quiet to unsettled levels.
In the Antarctic regions, the geomagnetic activity varied from
quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm periods. These
disturbed geomagnetic conditions are due to the high speed solar
wind stream from a recurrent positive polarity coronal hole.
Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of global geomagnetic activity
may be expected for the next 2 UT days (29 to 30 October) with
a small possibility of some isolated active periods due to the
possible CME effect.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions were observed through
UT day 28 October. Minor to mild MUF depressions, especially
in mid- to high- latitude regions, may be expected through UT
days 29 to 31 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Oct -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
31 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values
during UT day 28 October. The depressions are thought to be due
to very low level of solar ionising flux and recent disturbed
geomagnetic conditions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 29-31 October,
MUFs are expected to be between moderately depressed to near
predicted monthly values. Lower HF frequencies will be less impacted.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+09 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:30%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed:~500 km/sec Density: ~3 p/cc Temp: 50000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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