[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 19 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 20 10:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 19 October.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 20-22
October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 19 October, the solar wind
speed was at its nominal levels, varying in the range 320-380
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 3 nT and 6 nT. The north-south
component of IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +5/-5 nT. For most
part of today, UT day 20 October, the solar wind speed is expected
to remain mostly at its nominal levels. From late UT day 20 October,
the solar winds may enhance to moderate levels in response to
a recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 01111211
Cocos Island 2 11101210
Darwin 4 11111212
Townsville 3 01111212
Learmonth 3 01111211
Alice Springs 3 01111211
Canberra 3 01111112
Hobart 5 01222212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 01223201
Casey 11 24421221
Mawson 14 22222353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1222 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 12 Initially Quiet and then Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 19 October, geomagnetic activity in the Australian
region was mostly at quiet levels. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
activity varied mostly from quiet to unsettled levels. Global
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels
for the early part of UT day 20 October. Unsettled conditions
are possible from late 20 October due to arrival of coronal hole
effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled periods are likely for 21
October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 20-22 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
21 Oct -25 Near predicted monthly values
22 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 19 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed ones for all Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 20-22 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 51400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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