[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 October 19 issued 2332 UT on 20 Oct 2019

Mon Oct 21 10:32:08 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct:  65/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Oct             22 Oct             23 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    66/0               66/0               66/0

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 20 October. 
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active 
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low 
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 21-23 
October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 20 October, the solar wind 
speed was at its nominal levels, varying in the range 320-350 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south 
component of IMF (Bz) varied mainly between +3/-4 nT. On UT day 
21 October, the solar wind speed may increase to moderate levels 
in response to a recurrent coronal hole becoming geoeffective.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101012
      Cocos Island         2   10000022
      Darwin               2   11101012
      Townsville           4   11111113
      Learmonth            2   21001012
      Alice Springs        2   11001012
      Canberra             3   00101013
      Hobart               3   11202012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   01212012
      Casey                8   23321023
      Mawson              20   23211165

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1001 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Oct    12    Unsettled
22 Oct     7    Quiet
23 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 20 October, geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region was mostly at quiet levels. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
activity varied mostly from quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled 
global geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods are 
possible on 21 October due to coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet 
conditions are expected for 22-23 October.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 21-23 October.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 Oct   -25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Oct   -20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
22 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
23 Oct   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: On UT day 20 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) 
ranged mostly from near predicted monthly values to moderately 
depressed ones for all Australian regions. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 21-23 October.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9e+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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