[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 17 10:31:31 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 16 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
17-19 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed varied between 320
Km/s and 450km/s, increasing in average. The total IMF Bt varied
between 3 to 8 nT. The north-south component of IMF Bz varied
mainly between +/- 5nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three
UT days, 17-19 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22211012
Cocos Island 3 21111021
Darwin 4 22211012
Learmonth 4 22212011
Alice Springs 4 22211012
Canberra 5 22211022
Launceston 6 22311022
Hobart 5 22311012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 11210011
Casey 10 34321022
Mawson 17 23222155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 2000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 16 October, the geomagnetic activity was mostly
at Quiet levels in the Australian region with some isolated Unsettled
periods at higher latitudes. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
activity varied from Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 17-19 October with a chance of Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 16 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed over some sites.
For the next 3 UT days, 17-19 October, MUFs are expected to be
mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 349 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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