[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 15 Oct 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 16 10:31:37 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 15 October.
There are currently no sunspot regions on the visible disc and
no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc.
Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
16-18 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed was at background levels
between 320 Km/s and 370 km/s. The total IMF Bt varied between
3 to 8 nT. The north-south component of IMF Bz was mainly positive.
During the next three UT days, 16-18 October, the solar wind
speed is expected to be at nominal levels although a slight enhancement
may be observed 18 October due to the passage of a weak northern
positive polarity coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 31000022
Darwin 4 32000122
Townsville 5 32110122
Learmonth 4 31100022
Alice Springs 4 31000022
Canberra 3 21000022
Launceston 4 21100032
Hobart 3 21000022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 10000001
Casey 7 33320012
Mawson 3 31001010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1210 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
18 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 15 October, the geomagnetic activity was at
Quiet to Unsettled levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic
region also observed Quiet to Unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next
three UT days, 16-18 October. Possible Unsettled periods for
18 October due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct -20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 15 October, Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island region observed minor to moderate MUFs depressions
during the local day and night. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 16-18
October, MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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