[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 October 19 issued 2331 UT on 05 Oct 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 6 10:31:27 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 05 October. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
06-08 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 05 October, the solar wind 
speed was mostly steady near 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied 
between 2 to 8 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
varied between -5 to +5 nT. Today UT day 06 October, the solar 
wind is expected to be near its nominal to mildly elevated levels 
in response to patchy coronal hole. Mostly nominal solar wind 
speed is expected on UT days 07-08 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11122212
      Cocos Island         4   11112212
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           5   11122212
      Learmonth            5   11122212
      Alice Springs        5   11122212
      Gingin               6   11122213
      Canberra             5   10132212
      Launceston           8   11233222
      Hobart               7   11133222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     6   00233211
      Casey                9   23322222
      Mawson              26   32312327

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1121 2211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     5    Quiet
07 Oct     5    Quiet
08 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 05 October, the geomagnetic activity was mostly 
at quiet in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic 
activity was between quiet to active levels. Global geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next 
3 UT days (06-08 October), with isolated chance of some unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
3 UT days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
05 October. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 06-08 October, MUFs 
are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:    60400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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