[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 19 issued 2334 UT on 04 Oct 2019

Sat Oct 5 09:34:51 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity remained Very Low on UT day 04 October. 
There are currently one numbered sunspot regions on the visible 
disc, Region 2749 located at S08E21. Very Low solar activity 
is expected for the next three UT days, 05-07 October. No Earth-directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. During 
UT day 04 October, the solar wind speed was mostly steady near 
400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 to 10 nT and the 
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied between -10 to +9 
nT, with no prolonged period of southward Bz. The observed perturbation 
in IMF conditions are possibly due to arrival of co-rotation 
interaction region associated with patchy coronal holes. During 
the next two UT days, 05-06 October, the solar wind is expected 
to be near its nominal to mildly elevated levels. Mostly nominal 
solar wind speed is expected on UT day 07 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12322211
      Cocos Island         5   12322110
      Darwin               6   12322111
      Townsville           6   12322211
      Learmonth            7   12322221
      Alice Springs        6   02322211
      Gingin               6   12322220
      Canberra             6   02322211
      Launceston           7   13322211
      Hobart               5   02322210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     3   02201201
      Casey               15   24532221
      Mawson              32   23333474

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2111 0111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     7    Quiet
06 Oct     5    Quiet
07 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 04 October, the geomagnetic activity was at 
quiet to unsettled levels in the Australian region. In the Antarctic 
region, geomagnetic activity was between quiet to active levels. 
The observed unsettled conditions were due to patchy coronal 
holes. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at 
quiet levels for the next 3 UT days (05-07 October), with isolated 
chance of some unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are possible on UT 
days 05 October at high latitudes in response to the recent unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Oct    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -5
Oct      -15
Nov      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
04 October. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed 
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 05-07 October, MUFs 
are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:    80700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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