[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 October 19 issued 2333 UT on 06 Oct 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 7 10:33:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low on UT day 06 October.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days,
07-09 October. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 06 October, the solar wind
speed ranged between 375 km/s and 450 km/s. The mildly enhanced
solar wind speed observed during the early part of the UT day
06 October was caused by patchy coronal holes. The total IMF
Bt varied between 2 to 7 nT and the north-south component of
the IMF Bz varied between -4 to +1 nT. Mostly nominal solar wind
speed is expected for the next three UT days, 07-09 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 12211200
Cocos Island 2 12200100
Darwin 4 22111201
Townsville 4 22211200
Learmonth 5 23211201
Alice Springs 3 12111200
Gingin 3 21211101
Canberra 2 12111100
Launceston 4 12222200
Hobart 3 12121100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 4 12132100
Casey 9 33421200
Mawson 11 23322224
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 5 Quiet
08 Oct 5 Quiet
09 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 06 October, the geomagnetic activity was mostly
at quiet in the Australian region. In the Antarctic region, geomagnetic
activity was between quiet to unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next
3 UT days (07-09 October), with isolated chance of some unsettled
geomagnetic conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal Normal
09 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
3 UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep -5
Oct -15
Nov -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day
06 October. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were observed
over some sites. For the next 3 UT days, 07-09 October, MUFs
are expected to be mainly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.00e+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed:400 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp:60000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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