[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 28 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 29 10:31:44 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Nov 30 Nov 01 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 28 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (29
November-01 December). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 28 November, the
solar wind speed was near background levels, varying between
330-400km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 5 nT.
The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its background
levels for the next three UT days, 29 November-01 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11101121
Cocos Island 2 10100120
Darwin 3 21101021
Townsville 3 21101121
Learmonth 3 11101122
Alice Springs 2 10101121
Gingin 4 21100131
Canberra 2 10101121
Hobart 3 11101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00001110
Casey 13 34322133
Mawson 12 32102352
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Nov 5 Quiet
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 28 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
mainly Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days,
29 November-01 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 29 November-01 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Nov -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
30 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 29 November-01 December, mildly depressed to near
predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 394 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 62700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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