[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 19 issued 2337 UT on 27 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 28 10:37:10 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Nov 29 Nov 30 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 27 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days (28-30
November). A CME was observed in LASCO images erupting from the
East limb around 0348UT, it is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 27 November, the solar wind speed remained
slightly enhanced, varying between 370-420 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component
of IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to be at background to slightly enhanced levels for the next
three UT days, 28-30 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Cocos Island 1 11100110
Darwin 3 11110211
Townsville 3 11111211
Learmonth 4 12111212
Alice Springs 3 11110211
Gingin 4 11111222
Canberra 3 12111111
Hobart 4 12211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01110100
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 14 32222344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 27 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 28-30
November with a chance of isolated Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed during
the next 3 UT days, 28-30 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Nov -36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
29 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
30 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over some sites. For the next
three UT days, 28-30 November, mildly depressed to near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10e+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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