[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 29 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 30 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 29 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disk and no sunspots
are expected to rotate onto the visible disk. Very Low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 30
November to 02 December. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 29 November,
the solar wind speed was near its background levels, varying
in the range 350-380 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between
2 nT and 6 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between
+/-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its
background levels for the next three UT days, 30 November to
02 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22111122
Cocos Island 4 12111211
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 5 21112122
Alice Springs 5 22111122
Gingin 5 21111222
Canberra 3 11100122
Hobart 4 12111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11110011
Casey 14 34431223
Mawson 15 23212254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1100 0120
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 29 November, geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels in the Australian region. The Antarctic region observed
mostly Quiet to Active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days,
30 November to 02 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 UT days, 30 November to 02 December. Minor to
moderate MUF depressions may be observed, mostly in the Southern
hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
02 Dec -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) varied between near
predicted monthly values to mildly and moderately depressed ones.
Sporadic-E occurrences were seen over all the sites. For the
next three UT days, 30 November to 02 December, mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly MUFs are expected over the Australian
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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