[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 10 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 11 10:31:32 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 10 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 11-13
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 10 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 300-360
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 1 nT and 5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF Bz varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be mostly at its background level over
the next 3 UT days. Some mild enhancements in solar winds are
possible due to small patchy coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 10111000
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 1 10110000
Townsville 2 01121010
Learmonth 1 00111001
Alice Springs 2 2-111001
Gingin 1 10111001
Canberra 1 00111000
Hobart 2 11112000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00001000
Casey 5 23221001
Mawson 4 32121000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian and Antarctic
region was at quiet levels on UT day 10 November. The three day
outlook (UT day 11 and 13 November) is for the global geomagnetic
activity to be mostly at quiet levels and at times may increase
to unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the the next three UT days, 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
13 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values over most parts of the Australian
region during UT day 10 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 30300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list