[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 09 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 10 10:31:33 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 09 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 10-12
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 09 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 310-350
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south
component of the IMF Bz varied in the range +3/-3 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to become mildly enhanced today (UT day
10 November) due to a patchy negative polarity equatorial coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Cocos Island 1 11100100
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 12111111
Learmonth 2 11101102
Gingin 2 21000101
Canberra 2 02110011
Hobart 2 02111001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 01011000
Casey 9 33331211
Mawson 10 42111214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at quiet levels on UT day 09 November. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels.
The two day outlook (UT day 10 and 11 November) is for the global
geomagnetic activity to be mainly at quiet levels and at times
may increase to unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
There is a remote chance of isolated active periods on UT days
10 and 11 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the the next three UT days, 10-12 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values over most parts of the Australian
region during UT day 09 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 10-12 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 30800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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