[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 08 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 9 10:31:29 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 08 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 09-11
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 08 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 310-350
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF, Bz, varied in the range +3/-4
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels
for the next UT day, 09 November, but may become moderately enhanced
either late on 09 November or early on 10 November due to a patchy
negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 1 11011000
Cocos Island 1 11010000
Darwin 2 21011001
Townsville 2 11011111
Learmonth 2 11011101
Alice Springs 1 11001000
Gingin 2 11011110
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 8 33222121
Mawson 8 21022134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 2101 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at Quiet levels on UT day 08 November. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be mainly at Quiet
levels for the next UT day, 09 November, but may increase to
Unsettled levels either late on 09 November or early on 10 November
due to weak coronal hole effects. There is a chance of isolated
Active periods on UT days 10 and 11 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the the next three UT days, 09-11 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
10 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
11 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to mildly depressed ones over most parts of the
Australian region during UT day 08 November. The Cocos Island,
Niue Island and Northern Australian regions experienced some
periods with moderate depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 09-11 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 40500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list