[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 11 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 12 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 11 November.
There are currently no sunspots on the visible disc and no active
regions are expected to rotate onto the visible disc. Very low
solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 12-14
November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. During UT day 11 November, the solar wind
speed was near its background levels, varying in the range 300-370
km/s. The total IMF Bt ranged between 1 nT and 12 nT and the
north-south component of the IMF Bz varied in the range +8/-11
nT. Both the solar wind speed and total IMF Bt were gradually
increasing on average. The solar wind speed is expected to be
mostly near its background level over the next 3 UT days, 12-14
November. Moderate enhancements in solar wind speed are also
possible due to small patchy coronal holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 11232222
Cocos Island 5 10222222
Darwin 6 11232212
Townsville 7 11232222
Learmonth 8 11233222
Alice Springs 7 11232222
Gingin 7 11232222
Canberra 7 01233212
Hobart 8 02333211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 15 01155311
Casey 16 33442323
Mawson 18 13233435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1021 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 7 Quiet
13 Nov 5 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 11 November, geomagnetic activity was at quiet
to unsettled levels in the Australian region and at quiet to
minor storm levels in the Antarctic region. The three day outlook
(UT days 12-14 November) is for the global geomagnetic activity
to be mostly at quiet levels and at times it may increase to
unsettled levels due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate MUF depressions may be observed over
the next three UT days, 12-14 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
13 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
14 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mildly depressed
to near predicted monthly values over the Australian region during
UT day 11 November. Depressions were observed mostly during local
day. Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over all the sites.
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next three UT days,
12-14 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 24800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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