[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 November 19 issued 2334 UT on 05 Nov 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 6 10:34:25 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 NOVEMBER - 08 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 05 November.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three
UT days, 06-08 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 05 November,
the solar wind speed reached a maximum of 450 km/s at 05/1431
UT; it is currently averaging around 420 km/s. The total IMF
(Bt) started the UT day varying between 2-7 nT, then gradually
decreased to vary between 3-4 nT. The north-south component of
the IMF, Bz, varied between +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be at slightly enhanced levels for the next three
UT days, 06-08 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21122211
Cocos Island 3 11121210
Darwin 5 21122211
Townsville 5 21122211
Learmonth 5 21122211
Alice Springs 4 11122211
Gingin 4 21011221
Canberra 3 21012111
Hobart 4 21012211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Nov :
Macquarie Island 2 11002210
Casey 11 34322212
Mawson 21 42122455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1121 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at Quiet levels on UT day 05 November. In the Antarctic regions,
the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels, with
an isolated Minor Storm period. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three
UT days, 06-08 November, due to weak coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be
observed over the the next three UT days, 06-08 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Nov -29
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
07 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
08 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed over most parts of the
Australian region during UT day 05 November. The Northern Australian,
Cocos Island and Niue Island regions experienced periods with
moderate to severe depressions. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences
were observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 06-08 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Nov
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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