[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 5 10:31:36 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day 04 November.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disc. Very low solar activity is expected for the next three
UT days 05-07 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 04 November,
the solar wind speed was at its background levels, starting the
UT day between 290 to 310 km/s, then increased to reach a maximum
of 408 km/s at 04/2242 UT, currently around 380 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) started around 2 nT then increased to fluctuate between
0 nT and 9 nT. The north-south component of IMF, Bz, varied between
-5 to +8 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mainly at
background to slightly enhanced levels for the next three UT
days, 05-07 November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 11321111
Cocos Island 3 01321100
Darwin 4 11321100
Townsville 6 11322121
Learmonth 5 11222112
Alice Springs 4 11222101
Gingin 3 10221101
Canberra 2 01211011
Hobart 4 11311111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 01222010
Casey 10 23432112
Mawson 7 23212113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 04 November. In the Antarctic
regions, the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Unsettled levels,
with an isolated Active period. Global geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days
05-07 November with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be
observed over the the next three UT days, 05-07 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov -32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov -30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
06 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
07 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 2 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were moderately depressed to near predicted monthly values during
UT day 04 November. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 05-07 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 323 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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