[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 November 19 issued 2331 UT on 06 Nov 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 7 10:31:28 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Nov 08 Nov 09 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day 06 November.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the visible
disc and no active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disc. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three
UT days, 07-09 November. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. During UT day 06 November,
the solar wind speed decreased from around 420 km/s down to approximately
370 km/s, then began to increase after 06/2000 UT, reaching a
maximum of 446 km/s at 06/2229 UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 2-6 nT, reaching a maximum of 5.9 nT at 06/2047 UT, currently
around 4 nT. The north-south component of the IMF, Bz, varied
between +/-3 nT for most of the day, but reached a minimum of
-4.4 nT at 06/2048 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to be
at slightly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 07-09
November due to weak coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 01003112
Cocos Island 2 01002111
Darwin 4 01003122
Townsville 4 11103112
Learmonth 4 11003112
Alice Springs 4 01103112
Gingin 4 11013111
Canberra 2 01002012
Hobart 3 01112012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 01003201
Casey 11 34322122
Mawson 18 43312245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity for the Australian region was
at Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 06 November. In the Antarctic
regions, the geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels.
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled
levels for the next three UT days, 07-09 November, due to weak
coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) depressions may be
observed over the the next three UT days, 07-09 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Nov -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -20
Nov -16
Dec -17
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Nov -25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
08 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
09 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately depressed over most parts of the
Australian region during UT day 06 November. The Niue Island
region experienced a period with moderate to severe depressions
during the local day. Sporadic-E and Spread-F occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar HF conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 07-09 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 78200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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