[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 27 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 28 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 May 29 May 30 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 27 May. The Sun
is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the visible
solar disk and there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 28-30 May.
The solar wind speed was at ambient levels for the UT day 27
May, varying in the range 310-380 km/s. The IMF Btotal was mostly
elevated, 7-12 nT. There were two notable periods of negative
Bz, 0000-0040 UT and 0510-0900 UT, when Bz reached -8 nT. For
the rest of the UT day, Bz was mostly positive. Due to anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent southern
coronal hole, the solar wind speed is expected to increase to
moderately elevated levels by the end of the next UT day, 28
May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 May : A K
Australian Region 7 23321211
Cocos Island 5 23210211
Darwin 6 23320110
Townsville 8 23321221
Learmonth 9 24321220
Alice Springs 7 23321111
Culgoora 7 23321111
Gingin 8 23321221
Canberra 6 23321110
Launceston 9 24322211
Hobart 6 23321110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
Macquarie Island 7 12432000
Casey 8 33222211
Mawson 21 32442354
Davis 15 23332442
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1110 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 May 11 Unsettled
29 May 15 Unsettled to Active
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet to Unsettled
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 27 May. Mostly
Quiet to Active conditions were observed in Antarctica. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled global geomagnetic activity is expected for
28 May with possible Active period due to coronal hole effects
at the end of the UT day. On 29 May geomagnetic activity is expected
to reach Active levels (isolated Minor Storm levels are also
possible) and then decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels as the
coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with mild depressions
at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes.
Ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere saw mostly near predicted
monthly values for MUFs with notable enhancements for all latitudes
and mild depressions for low latitudes. Similar HF conditions
are expected for 28 May. Disturbed ionospheric support is expected
for high latitudes on 28-29 May due to elevated geomagnetic activity
on those days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 May -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
29 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 May -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for Southern Australian
region and Antarctica. Variable conditions with mild enhancements
and depressions were observed in Equatorial and Northern Australian
regions. Notable periods of degraded ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Disturbed ionospheric support
is expected for high latitudes on 28-29 May due to elevated geomagnetic
activity on those days. Possible MUF depressions of 10%-30% for
Australian regions and continued disturbed ionospheric support
are expected for 30 May as a consequence of the predicted increase
in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 321 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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