[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 19 issued 2332 UT on 28 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:32:02 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 28 May. The Sun 
is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the visible 
solar disk and there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections 
(CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very Low 
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 29-31 May. 
During the UT day 28 May, the solar wind speed has increased 
from 330 km/s to 460 km/s due to arrival of a high speed solar 
wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Btotal varied 
in the range 5-10 nT. There was one notable period of negative 
Bz, 1630-1850 UT, when Bz reached -7 nT. On UT day 29 May the 
solar wind speed is expected to increase further and may reach 
500-550 km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112121
      Cocos Island         3   01112121
      Darwin               4   11112121
      Townsville           5   11122122
      Learmonth            4   11112122
      Alice Springs        3   00112121
      Culgoora             3   11112021
      Gingin               3   10012122
      Canberra             2   00012021
      Launceston           3   00112122
      Hobart               2   00012021    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   00012011
      Casey                6   22112132
      Mawson              25   31122266
      Davis               16   12222163

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             10   3332 1321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May    15    Unsettled to Active
30 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
31 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 28 May and 
is current for 29 May only. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet 
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 28 May. Mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in Antarctica. On 
29 May geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Active levels 
(isolated Minor Storm periods are also possible) due to coronal 
hole effects and then decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels as 
the coronal hole effects wane.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During the last 24 hours in the Southern hemisphere 
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values and mildly enhanced. Variable ionospheric support 
was observed in the Northern Hemisphere with mild to moderate 
depressions at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across 
all latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for 29 May. 
Disturbed ionospheric support is expected for high latitudes 
on 29 May due to elevated geomagnetic activity on this day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 May   -10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
31 May   -15    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for 
Australian regions and Antarctica. Variable conditions with mild 
enhancements and depressions were observed in Southern Australian 
regions. Notable periods of degraded ionospheric support for 
Antarctic regions over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are 
expected for the next 24 hours. Disturbed ionospheric support 
is expected for high latitudes on 29 May due to elevated geomagnetic 
activity on this day. Possible MUF depressions of 10%-30% for 
Australian regions are expected for 30-31 May as a consequence 
of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 346 km/sec  Density:    6.1 p/cc  Temp:    22600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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