[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 May 19 issued 2332 UT on 28 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 29 09:32:02 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 May 30 May 31 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 28 May. The Sun
is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the visible
solar disk and there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Very Low
solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 29-31 May.
During the UT day 28 May, the solar wind speed has increased
from 330 km/s to 460 km/s due to arrival of a high speed solar
wind stream from the recurrent coronal hole. The IMF Btotal varied
in the range 5-10 nT. There was one notable period of negative
Bz, 1630-1850 UT, when Bz reached -7 nT. On UT day 29 May the
solar wind speed is expected to increase further and may reach
500-550 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11112121
Cocos Island 3 01112121
Darwin 4 11112121
Townsville 5 11122122
Learmonth 4 11112122
Alice Springs 3 00112121
Culgoora 3 11112021
Gingin 3 10012122
Canberra 2 00012021
Launceston 3 00112122
Hobart 2 00012021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00012011
Casey 6 22112132
Mawson 25 31122266
Davis 16 12222163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 3332 1321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 May 15 Unsettled to Active
30 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 28 May and
is current for 29 May only. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet
levels across the Australian region for the UT day 28 May. Mostly
Quiet to Unsettled conditions were observed in Antarctica. On
29 May geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Active levels
(isolated Minor Storm periods are also possible) due to coronal
hole effects and then decrease to Quiet to Unsettled levels as
the coronal hole effects wane.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: During the last 24 hours in the Southern hemisphere
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values and mildly enhanced. Variable ionospheric support
was observed in the Northern Hemisphere with mild to moderate
depressions at high latitudes to occasional enhancements across
all latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for 29 May.
Disturbed ionospheric support is expected for high latitudes
on 29 May due to elevated geomagnetic activity on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 May -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 May -10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
31 May -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for
Australian regions and Antarctica. Variable conditions with mild
enhancements and depressions were observed in Southern Australian
regions. Notable periods of degraded ionospheric support for
Antarctic regions over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are
expected for the next 24 hours. Disturbed ionospheric support
is expected for high latitudes on 29 May due to elevated geomagnetic
activity on this day. Possible MUF depressions of 10%-30% for
Australian regions are expected for 30-31 May as a consequence
of the predicted increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 22600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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