[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 May 19 issued 2346 UT on 26 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 27 09:46:58 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 26May. The sun is currently
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind parameters were
at ambient levels for most of the UT day. Between 0000UT-2125UT
solar wind speed ranged between 312km/s-363km/s, while Bz fluctuated
between +1 and -2nT. At 2125UT a notable step increase in all
solar wind parameters was observed with solar wind increasing
to 363km/s and Btotal increased from 2nT to 6nT. Elevated solar
wind speeds expected for 28May-29May due to anticipated arrival
of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere
located negative polarity coronal hole. Very Low solar activity
is expected over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11100002
Cocos Island 1 11000002
Darwin 3 11100003
Townsville 3 12100003
Learmonth 1 10100002
Alice Springs 2 11100002
Culgoora 2 11100002
Gingin 1 00000012
Canberra 0 00000001
Launceston 1 11000002
Hobart 1 01000002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 4 12200013
Mawson 6 32201032
Davis 9 13301043
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 9 Quiet to Unsettled
28 May 13 Unsettled to Active
29 May 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian/NZ region for most of the UT day with the exception
of an Unsettled period observed close to the time of this report.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions with isolated
Active period at the end of the UT day. Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic
activity is expected for the Australian/NZ region and Unsettled
conditions with possible Active periods for Antarctic regions
forecast for 27May. Unsettled conditions expected for Australian/NZ
region with possible Active periods while Antarctic regions should
experience Unsettled to Active conditions with isolated Minor
Storm periods for 28May-29May due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
29 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions
at high-low latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes.
Ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere saw near predicted
monthly values for MUFs with notable enhancements for low to
high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for 27May.
Disturbed ionospheric support expected for high latitudes 28May-29May
and MUF depressions for mid latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic
activity on those days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
28 May -15 Near predicted monthly values
29 May -15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable
periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
24 hours. Possible MUF depressions 10%-30% for Northern AUS and
Southern AUS/NZ region and continued disturbed ionospheric support
expected for 28May-29May due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 22800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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