[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 May 19 issued 2345 UT on 25 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 26 09:45:00 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 25May. The sun is currently
spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar disk and
there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) observed
in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind speed ranged
between 296km/s to 344km/s and is currently 331km/s at the time
of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged
between +3 nT and -4 nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed is
expected to remain at/near ambient levels for the next 2 days.
Expected increase in solar wind speed on 28May due to anticipated
arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a southern hemisphere
located negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the
central meridian early today. Very Low solar activity is expected
over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11001110
Cocos Island 0 01000010
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 3 12101111
Learmonth 1 10001111
Culgoora 1 11001110
Gingin 1 10001110
Canberra 0 00001000
Launceston 2 11012110
Hobart 2 10012110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 22110211
Mawson 4 21100123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1211 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 5 Quiet
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian/NZ region. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
regions. Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the Australian/NZ
region and Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Antarctic regions
on 26May-27May. Unsettled conditions expected for Australian/NZ
region with possible Active periods for 28May while Antarctic
regions should experience Unsettled to Active conditions with
isolated Minor Storm periods due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours. Variable ionospheric
support observed in the Northern Hemisphere with minor depressions
at mid-low latitudes to occasional enhancements across all latitudes.
Ionospheric support for Southern hemisphere saw near predicted
monthly values for MUFs with notable enhancements for low to
high latitudes. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
27 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
28 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced during local night for
Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Notable
periods of degraded ionospheric support for Antarctic regions
over the UT day. Similar HF conditions are expected for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 339 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 26900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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