[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 20 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 19 May. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, AR2741, which will soon rotate to the far side of the sun.
Very low solar activity is expected for the next 3 UT days, 20-22
May. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed
in available coronagraph imagery for UT day 19 May. During the
last 24 hours, solar wind speed was ranged between 350 km/s and
420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was varying in the range 4-7 nT,
gradually increasing on average, currently near 7 nT. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3 nT and -5 nT, and
has being predominantly southward during the last few hours of
the UT day. For the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected
to enhance slightly in response to small patchy equatorial coronal
holes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 0 00100001
Cocos Island 0 00110000
Darwin 0 00100001
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 1 01110001
Culgoora 0 00000001
Gingin 0 00000011
Canberra 0 00100000
Launceston 0 00000100
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22210101
Mawson 6 11210124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 3 0122 1010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 May 8 Quiet
22 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 19 May. Mostly Quiet levels were
observed in Antarctica. The global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels during the next 2 days
(20-21 May) and at times may reach active levels. The forecasted
disturbed conditions are in response to effects from small patchy
equatorial coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours; moderate depressions
were observed mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected for the next 3
UT days, 20-22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
21 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
22 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from mostly
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during
the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Similar HF propagation
conditions in the Australian region are expected for the next
3 UT days, 20-22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 43100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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