[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 May 19 issued 2349 UT on 20 May 2019

Tue May 21 09:49:11 EST 2019

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 20th May. The sun is 
currently spotless with no numbered regions on the visible solar 
disk and there were no earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections 
(CMEs) observed in the available coronagraph imagery. Solar wind 
speed ranged between 354km/s-424km/s over the UT day and currently 
384km/s at the time of this report. The total IMF (Bt) has gradually 
declined over the last 24 hours from 9nT to 4nT while the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +6 nT and -4 nT with 
no significant sustained southward periods. Minor enhancements 
in the solar wind speed are possible over the next 2 days due 
to small equatorially located negative polarity coronal holes. 
Very Low solar activity is expected over the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   21100000
      Cocos Island         2   21110000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           3   22101101
      Learmonth            2   22110100
      Culgoora             1   21100000
      Gingin               3   32100000
      Canberra             0   20000000
      Launceston           2   22101000
      Hobart               1   21000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001000
      Casey                6   33311000
      Mawson              11   53211122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0011 1102     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     7    Quiet
22 May     6    Quiet
23 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region with Unsettled to Quiet levels for Antarctic 
regions. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
Australian region with possible Unsettled conditions between 
21May-22May and Quiet conditions expected for 23May. Quiet to 
Unsettled with possible Active periods for Antarctic regions 
21May-23May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours with moderate depressions 
observed mostly at mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere 
to occasional enhancements for low to high latitudes in the southern 
hemisphere. Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate 
depressions and degradations in HF conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
20 May     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
22 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels over the last 24 
hours for Equatorial/Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. 
Antarctic regions ionospheric support ranged from disturbed conditions 
to slightly enhanced MUF's. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next 3 UT days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 384 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    34700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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