[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 19 09:30:19 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 May. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, AR2741, which is now located near the west limb of the
visible solar disk. Very low solar activity is expected for the
next 3 UT days, 19-21 May. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery for UT
day 18 May. During the last 24 hours, solar wind speed was mostly
steady near 400 km/s. The observed weakly elevated speeds are
in response to the recent CME activities. The total IMF (Bt)
ranged from 4 nT to 6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF
(Bz) ranged between +4 nT and -4 nT, without any significant
periods of southward Bz. For the next 24 hours, the solar wind
speed is expected to vary between the recently observed weakly
elevated levels and background levels.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 2 01220000
Cocos Island 1 00120000
Darwin 2 11220001
Townsville 2 11220001
Learmonth 2 11220000
Culgoora 2 01220000
Gingin 2 01220000
Canberra 0 00110000
Launceston 3 11230000
Hobart 2 00230000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
Macquarie Island 5 00340000
Casey 6 13321110
Mawson 7 12232103
Davis 4 12321000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3111 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 5 Quiet
20 May 5 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the
Australian region on UT day 18 May. Mostly Quiet levels were
observed in Antarctica. The global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be mostly at Quiet levels during the next 3 UT days, 19-21
May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values during the last 24 hours; moderate depressions
were observed mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.
Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate depressions
and degradations in HF conditions are expected for the next 3
UT days, 19-21 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 60% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
20 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last
24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Similar HF propagation conditions
in the Australian region are expected for the next 3 UT days,
19-21 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 11.8 p/cc Temp: 176000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list