[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 18 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 19 09:30:19 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 18 May. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar 
disk, AR2741, which is now located near the west limb of the 
visible solar disk. Very low solar activity is expected for the 
next 3 UT days, 19-21 May. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections 
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery for UT 
day 18 May. During the last 24 hours, solar wind speed was mostly 
steady near 400 km/s. The observed weakly elevated speeds are 
in response to the recent CME activities. The total IMF (Bt) 
ranged from 4 nT to 6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF 
(Bz) ranged between +4 nT and -4 nT, without any significant 
periods of southward Bz. For the next 24 hours, the solar wind 
speed is expected to vary between the recently observed weakly 
elevated levels and background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01220000
      Cocos Island         1   00120000
      Darwin               2   11220001
      Townsville           2   11220001
      Learmonth            2   11220000
      Culgoora             2   01220000
      Gingin               2   01220000
      Canberra             0   00110000
      Launceston           3   11230000
      Hobart               2   00230000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   00340000
      Casey                6   13321110
      Mawson               7   12232103
      Davis                4   12321000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5   3111 2101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May     5    Quiet
20 May     5    Quiet
21 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 18 May. Mostly Quiet levels were 
observed in Antarctica. The global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels during the next 3 UT days, 19-21 
May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours; moderate depressions 
were observed mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are expected for the next 3 
UT days, 19-21 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 60% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
21 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last 
24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Similar HF propagation conditions 
in the Australian region are expected for the next 3 UT days, 
19-21 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 448 km/sec  Density:   11.8 p/cc  Temp:   176000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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