[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 17 May 2019

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 18 09:30:22 EST 2019 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 May. There 
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar 
disk, AR2741, which is located at N05W69. Very low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 UT days, 18-20 May, with a remote 
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections 
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery for UT 
day 17 May. During the last 24 hours, solar wind speed was varying 
in the range 390-470 km/s, gradually decreasing on average, currently 
near 400 km/s. The observed moderately elevated speeds are in 
response to the recent CMEs. The total IMF (Bt) ranged from 4 
nT to 6 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged 
between +5 nT and -1 nT without significant periods of southward 
Bz. For the next 24 hours, the solar wind speed is expected to 
vary between the recently observed moderately elevated levels 
and background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21201100
      Cocos Island         2   22200000
      Darwin               3   22201101
      Townsville           4   32201101
      Learmonth            3   22201100
      Culgoora             2   21200100
      Gingin               3   21200200
      Canberra             1   21100000
      Launceston           2   21201100
      Hobart               2   21101100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   21001000
      Casey                3   22201200
      Mawson               7   42201103
      Davis                6   42211100

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   2221 2133     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May     5    Quiet
19 May     5    Quiet
20 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 17 May. Mostly Quiet levels were 
observed in Antarctica. The global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels during the next 3 UT days, 18-20 
May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values during the last 24 hours; moderate depressions 
were observed mostly at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. 
Mostly normal MUFs with possible minor to moderate depressions 
and degradations in HF conditions are expected for the next 3 
UT days, 18-20 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 60% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
20 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced levels during the last 
24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions, the enhancements being observed 
mostly during local night. Similar HF propagation conditions 
in the Australian region are expected for the next 3 UT days, 
18-20 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:   11.9 p/cc  Temp:   230000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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