[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 May 19 issued 2340 UT on 16 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 17 09:40:49 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 74/11 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 16 May. There
is currently one numbered sunspot region on the visible solar
disk, AR2741 located at N05W56. Very low levels of solar activity
is expected for the next 3 UT days (17 to 19 May) with a remote
chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery for UT
day 16 May. The CME associated with 12/1900 UT and 13/1546 UT
erupting filaments may be already arrived however, its impact
at Earth were minimal. During the last 24 hours, solar wind speed
mostly fluctuated around 450 km/s. These moderately elevated
winds are in response to the CMEs. The total IMF (Bt) ranged
from 4 nT and 8 nT. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz)
ranged between +7 nT and -7 nT, with no prolonged period of Southward
Bz. Solar wind speed is expected remain near these moderately
elevated for the next 24 hours as the CME effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11211121
Cocos Island 3 12110121
Darwin 5 21221122
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 22221121
Culgoora 4 11211112
Gingin 3 11210121
Canberra 2 11210011
Launceston 5 12211122
Hobart 2 11111011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 1 01010011
Casey 10 33322123
Mawson 17 23323145
Davis 18 23432154
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 1221 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 May 5 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 14 May and
is current for 14-17 May. Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels
across the Australian region on UT day 16 May. Mostly Quiet to
Active levels were observed in Antarctica. The geomagnetic activity
is expected to be mostly at Quiet to Unsettled levels. However,
there remains a remote chance of 12 and 13 May CME effects to
arrive late today (UT day 17). If this occurs, geomagnetic conditions
can reach Active to Minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were moderately depressed
in the high and mid Northern Hemisphere regions during the last
24 hours. Minor to moderate MUF depressions and degradations
in HF conditions may be expected for the next two UT days (17
to 18 May) in response to the recent increase in geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
18 May -10 Near predicted monthly values
19 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 15 May
and is current for 15-17 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
ranged from near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced
levels during the last 24 hours in the Aus/NZ regions. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions and degradations in HF conditions
may be expected for the next two UT days (17 to 18 May) in the
Southern Australian and Antarctic region in response to the recent
increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 433 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 35800 K Bz: 7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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