[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 May 19 issued 2345 UT on 11 May 2019
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 12 09:45:38 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 11 May, with
no significant flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2740(N08W23)
and region 2741(N05E13), they remained relatively stable and
inactive. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low on UT days,
12-14 May with a slight chance of isolated C-class flares. Two
filament eruptions observed in H-alpha and SDO images in the
vicinity of region 2741 after 10/2346UT. A faint Halo CME observed
in LASCO C2 imagery around 11/0312UT primarily directed to the
North-East but given the halo character it is likely to have
some earth directed component. This will be confirmed with estimated
arrival time after further analysis. After the CME weak shock
arrival at 10/1655UT, the total IMF (Bt) increased to reach 12
nT at 11/0145UT, currently around 8 nT while the north-south
component of IMF (Bz) underwent prolonged periods of pronounced
negative values up to -11 nT, currently around -4 nT. The solar
wind speed varied mainly around 350 Km/s. The solar wind speed
might become slightly enhanced during the next 24 hours due to
CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 15 32444222
Cocos Island 12 33333222
Darwin 13 32344212
Townsville 17 33444223
Learmonth 18 33444323
Culgoora 14 32443222
Gingin 17 33344323
Canberra 15 32444222
Launceston 19 32544223
Hobart 15 32444222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 41 43576312
Casey 16 34333224
Mawson 54 56443376
Davis 22 45332235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2221 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 15 Quiet to Active
13 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
14 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet to Active levels across
the Australian region on UT day 11 May. Mostly Active to Storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. On UT days 12-13 May, geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels due to
continued CME effects returning to mainly Quiet levels on 14
May. A period of significant southward Bz component could produce
Active levels today, 12 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted monthly MUFs are expected for
the next 24 hours with a chance of minor depressions due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 100% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 May -15 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed during the last 24 hours for
all regions. Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian
ionosonde stations. Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted
monthly MUFs are expected for the next three UT days, 12-14 May,
in the Australian/NZ regions, with a chance of minor MUF depressions
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 46000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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