[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 19 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2019
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 11 09:30:18 EST 2019
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 10 May, with
no significant flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2740(N08W11)
and region 2741(N05E25), they remained relatively stable over
the period. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low on UT days,
11-13 May with a slight chance of isolated C-class flares. A
faint narrow CME was observed in LASCO C2 Imagery around 10/0324UT
unlikely to have any earth direct component. This will be confirmed
after further analysis. No other CME activity was recorded in
available coronagraph imagery. As predicted, the solar wind data
observed a weak shock around 10/1630UT from the CME observed
in LASCO C2 imagery after 06/2348UT. The solar wind speed was
near its background levels of 330 Km/s up to 10/1630UT, then
it increased to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) abruptly increased
to almost 11 nT after 10/1630 UT while the north-south component
of IMF (Bz) oscillated between +5 nT and -9 nT, currently around
-6 nT. Tha solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly enhanced
during the next 24 hours due to weak CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Cocos Island 3 11000222
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 5 11112222
Learmonth 4 11111222
Culgoora 4 21011221
Gingin 3 10101222
Canberra 3 11001221
Launceston 6 11111331
Hobart 3 10101221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 3 10211211
Casey 6 22121222
Mawson 22 42321346
Davis 13 23321244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1232 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 15 Quiet to Active
12 May 12 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels across
the Australian region on UT day 10 May with some isolated unsettled
periods at Launceston station. Mostly Quiet to Active levels
were observed in Antarctica. On UT days 11-12 May, geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels due to
weak CME effects returning to mainly Quiet levels on 13 May.
A period of significant southward Bz component could produce
Active levels today, 11 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -12
Jun -12
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May -15 Near predicted monthly values
12 May -15 Near predicted monthly values
13 May -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during the last 24 hours.
Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde stations.
Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are
expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 May, in the Australian/NZ
regions, with a chance of minor MUF depressions due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 61200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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