[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 May 19 issued 2335 UT on 12 May 2019

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 13 09:35:15 EST 2019


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2019 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 May, with 
no significant flares. There are currently two numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk visible from the Earth, region 2740(N08W38) 
and region 2741(N05W01). Region 2740 continued to decay while 
region 2741 remained stable. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low on UT days, 13-15 May with a slight chance of isolated 
C-class flares. The CME associated with the filament eruption 
after 10/2346UT was further analysed, it is expected to have 
a significant earth directed component with the estimated shock 
arrival time early UT day 15 May. A filament centred near region 
2741 disappeared starting 12/0200UT. Discontinuity observed in 
LASCO C2 imagery made analysis difficult but data gap that immediately 
followed show CME activity, likely to be associated with the 
filament eruption. This will be further analysis when data become 
available. Solar wind parameters showed a slow decay after the 
6/2346 CME passage. The solar wind speed varied mainly around 
350 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) decreased to 8 nT while the north-south 
component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range of +/- 5 nT. Solar 
wind speeds are expected to be at nominal levels over the next 
two days, 13-14 May before a significant increase on 15 May due 
the anticipated CME passage.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   00000010
      Cocos Island         0   00000010
      Darwin               1   10100111
      Townsville           2   11100111
      Learmonth            0   01000010
      Culgoora             0   00000010
      Gingin               0   00000011
      Canberra             0   00000010
      Launceston           1   10100010
      Hobart               1   10100010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   21100000
      Casey                5   23300020
      Mawson              10   43200124
      Davis                5   23310020

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   5444 4234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     7    Quiet
14 May     7    Quiet
15 May    35    Quiet to Minor Storm

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels across the 
Australian region on UT day 12 May. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled 
levels were observed in Antarctica. On UT days 13-14 May, geomagnetic 
activity is expected to remain at Quiet levels. Conditions are 
expected reach Active to Minor Storm levels, with a chance of 
isolated Major Storm periods on UT day, 15 May due to expected 
CME passage.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly 
MUFs are expected for the next 24 hours.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -12
Jun      -12

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
14 May    -5    Near predicted monthly values
15 May   -25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to mildly enhanced levels during the last 24 hours. 
Sporadic E layers observed over some Australian ionosonde stations. 
Spread F periods observed at times at Hobart station. Mostly 
normal HF conditions and near predicted monthly MUFs are expected 
for the next two UT days, 13-14 May. Possible MUF depressions 
from May 15 due to anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    11300 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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